Análise do Impacto do Terrorismo e da Situação Económica no Turismo: Uma Abordagem PVAR

Matheus Belucio, José Alberto Fuinhas, Samuel Faria, Ângela Sofia Laiginhas Pina

Abstract


Resumo

Proposta: As relações entre o terrorismo, a situação económica e o turismo são analisadas para um painel balanceado com dados anuais de 1995 a 2017, para 35 países do mundo.

Desenho/metodologia/abordagem: Foi estimado um modelo de vetores autorregressivos em painel.

Resultados: As variáveis são endógenas e possuem uma densa relação de causalidades à Granger entre elas. A taxa de câmbio revelou possuir um efeito positivo sobre o turismo. Já o mal-estar económico e social medido pelo índice de miséria revelou ter um efeito depressor sobre o turismo. O terrorismo tem, como esperado, um efeito depressor sobre o turismo, mas apenas com um nível de significância de 10%. No entanto, o terrorismo influencia indiretamente o turismo via PIB, índice de miséria e taxa de câmbio. O terrorismo é influenciado negativamente pela taxa de câmbio e pelo índice de miséria.

Limitações da investigação/implicações: O número de países que possuem informações estatísticas disponível. Há uma necessidade de revisitar a temática futuramente quando mais nações fornecerem dados.

Originalidade/valor: Os decisores de política económica devem ter em consideração que a situação económica e social interna dos países condiciona o seu turismo com proveniência do exterior.

Palavras-chave: Economia, Turismo; Terrorismo; Instabilidade; PVAR.

 

Abstract

Purpose: Relations between terrorism, the economic outlook and tourism are analysed for a balanced panel with annual data from 1995 to 2017 for 35 countries.

Design/Methodology/Approach: A panel autoregressive vector model was used.

Findings: All variables are endogenous and have a dense Granger causal relationship between them. The exchange rate has been shown to have a positive effect on tourism. However, the economic and social malaise measured by the misery index reveals to have a depressing effect on tourism. Terrorism has, as expected, a depressing effect on tourism, but only with a 10% significance level. Nevertheless, terrorism indirectly influences tourism via GDP, misery index and exchange rate. The exchange rate and misery index negatively influence terrorism.

Research limitations/implications: The number of countries that have statistical information available. There is a need to revisit the topic in the future when more nations provide data.

Originality/Value: Economic policymakers need to take into account that countries' internal economic and social conditions constrain their tourism from abroad.

Keywords: Economics; Tourism; Terrorism; Instability; PVAR.


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References


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