Investimento racional no PSI20

Elisabete Duarte Neves, Nuno Albuquerque Costa

Abstract


Objetivos: Obter uma estratégia de investimento com rendibilidades positivas e consistentes ao longo do tempo, considerando por um lado a análise técnica e por outro a estratégia Buy-and-Hold.

Metodologia: Para alcançar o objectivo proposto foi usado como referência o índice PSI20 em dois casos práticos complementares. No primeiro caso foram considerados dois tipos de investimento, um investimento baseado na estratégia Buy-and-Hold e outro baseado na Análise Técnica, onde foram selecionados cinco indicadores. No segundo caso prático e tendo subjacentes as conclusões práticas do primeiro estudo foi possível formar uma estratégia de investimento rentável e com risco moderado.

Resultados: mostram que a estratégia baseada na Análise Técnica apresenta rendibilidades superiores no período considerado.

Limitações: A inexistência de custos/comissões de transação e impostos foi um dos pressupostos utilizados, e a serem incluídos, podiam alterar os resultados aqui apresentados.

Originalidade/valor: Entendemos que, pelo facto de existirem poucos trabalhos de investigação sobre estratégias de investimento aplicadas ao índice PSI20, esta investigação tenha a sua quota de originalidade. Acreditamos igualmente que esta investigação possa constituir uma mais-valia aos operadores de mercado bolsista português, com o escopo de atingir rendibilidades significativas e consistentes.

 

Palavras-chave: Análise Técnica, Estratégia Buy-and-Hold, Indicadores Técnicos, PSI20, Análise Fundamental.

 

 

[ENG]

Title: "Rational investment in PSI20"

Abstract

Purpose: To obtain an investment strategy with positive and consistent returns over time, considering both the technical analysis and the Buy-and-Hold strategy.

Methodology: To achieve the proposed objective, the PSI20 index was used as a reference in two complementary practical cases. In the first case two types of investments were considered, one based on the Buy-and-Hold strategy and one based on the Technical Analysis, where five indicators were selected. In the second case study and based on the practical conclusions of the first study it was possible to form a profitable and moderate risk investment strategy.

Results: show that the strategy based on the Technical Analysis presents superior returns in the period considered.

Limitations: The absence of transaction costs / commissions and taxes was one of the assumptions used, and to be included, could change the results presented here.

Originality/value: We understand that because there is little research on investment strategies applied to the PSI20 index, this research has its originality share. We also believe that this research can be of added value to Portuguese stock market traders, with the aim of achieving significant and consistent returns.

 

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Buy-and-Hold Strategy, Technical Indicators, PSI20, Fundamental Analysis.

 


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